![]() The most common race was in Phoenix, but that came before the COVID-19 layoff. Sunday's race in New Hampshire will be just the third this year at a short, flat track, and it's just the fourth using the higher-horsepower rules package. The chief reasoning is that we don't have those ever-important relevant races in 2020. They also likely ran that race with the same team, making that even more important. If a driver runs well at one 1.5-mile track with moderate banking, you can expect them to be good the next time they go to a track in the same bucket. The other reason we can generally downplay track history is that we usually have data from similar tracks within that same season. With the importance that equipment plays in NASCAR, that's a huge negative. As a result, you're seeing drivers in different contexts than their current environments. Usually, valuing track history means looking back at past seasons rather than the current one. ![]() The reasoning for doing so is pretty simple. Normally in this piece, I downplay the impact of track history when trying to predict NASCAR DFS. ![]()
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